So how did I do? Well, better than last year!
In fact, it’s years like this that make me regret not joining some kind of betting pool with a big payout. But that’s not my style. Instead I just sit here in the command center of the Soundwaves Cinema compound knowing I could have scored big. And sometimes that’s enough.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)
Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
Jason Reitman (“Juno”)
Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
MY RESULTS: FOUR OUT OF FIVE.
I anticipated a lot more Oscarly love for Sean Penn’s movie “Into The Wild,” which nabbed all of two nods. As predicted, Paul Thomas Anderson, the Coen Brothers, Tony Gilroy and Julian Schnabel all made the cut, and after Schnabel’s surprising Golden Globe win, all eyes are on him now.
Also as predicted, Joe Wright (“Atonement”) was shut out of most of the major categories. People will be shocked - SHOCKED! - by this, but I saw it coming. “Atonement” is a fine and clever film but you can’t bottle a tragedy with an interesting twist and sell it as the next “Titanic,” not without a little fallout.
But good for Jason Reitman, who I honestly dismissed because his film was such a pure pop confection, I figured the Academy would have snubbed it. But this is where those DVD screeners can make or break the game.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, (“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford")
Javier Bardem, (“No Country for Old Men”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, (“Charlie Wilson's War”)
Hal Holbrook, (“Into the Wild”)
Tom Wilkinson, (“Michael Clayton”)
MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!
Considering what a strong category this was, it honestly could have gone a number of different ways. But in the end, Casey Affleck, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Tom Wilkinson all get nods here when they were also superb in equally impressive performances last year. All that good ink helps.
I still think this award is Bardem’s to lose. Yeah, a lot of people really love Hal Holbrook but I just watched “No Country For Old men” again and Bardem is simply the greatest boogeyman since a certain doctor with a taste for human flesh.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, (“I'm Not There”)
Ruby Dee, (“American Gangster”)
Saoirse Ronan, (“Atonement”)
Amy Ryan, (“Gone Baby Gone”)
Tilda Swinton, (“Michael Clayton”)
MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!
Amy Ryan’s galvanizing performance in “Gone Baby Gone” was a given, as was Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton. I always felt Saoirse Ronan was a lock but many Oscarwatchers had neglected to support this theory. Never count out the whipper-snappers!
But it was the luminous Ruby Dee who surprised everyone for her relatively brief turn in “American Gangster.” Not me. Dee is a living icon and an example of Old Hollywood style. She won't win but her very presence will class up the joint.
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney, (“Michael Clayton”)
Daniel Day Lewis, (“There Will Be Blood”)
Johnny Depp (“Sweeney Todd”)
Tommy Lee Jones (“In The Valley Of Elah”)
Viggo Mortensen, (“Eastern Promises”)
MY RESULTS: THREE OUT OF FIVE
Argh! I knew Depp could have been the spoiler and I should have included him. But I also counted on Ryan Gosling (“Lars and the Real Girl”) getting in because of his multiple nods elsewhere, namely the SAG awards. And despite all that pre-Oscar hype, Emile Hirsch failed to make the cut for Penn’s “Into the Wild.”
But alas – and rightfully so – Tommy Lee Jones emerges a contender for one of two great performances last year (in “Elah” and “No Country For Old Men”). But Daniel Day-Lewis drinks everyone's milkshake. There is simply no better performance in the past few years.
BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, ("Elizabeth: The Golden Age")
Julie Christie, (“Away from Her”)
Marion Cotillard, (“La Vie en Rose”)
Laura Linney, (“The Savages”)
Ellen Page, (“Juno”)
MY RESULTS: FOUR OUT OF FIVE
Double argh! This is the first time I didn’t get five out of five in this category since the century began! And who was responsible for the end of my perfect run? Cate Blanchett, who got her SECOND nomination of the year for a role she has played before! Who saw that coming? This makes four nominations in four years (with one win for “The Aviator”), which is as close to an Oscar sure thing as we get.
It’s too bad because Angelina Jolie’s performance in “A Mighty Heart” was simply that: mighty. My pride is rescued somewhat by having gone out on a limb and predicated Linney for a movie that nobody saw (“The Savages”) and the very young, very talented Ellen Page.
BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!
I was right. People are sheep. Hence, the inclusion of “Atonement” after being snubbed in most of the major acting and directing categories. Focus Features took a cue from Hillary Clinton and assumed the mantle of inevitability and sometimes, that works.
Two auteur-driven classics lead the charge with eight nominations each - “There Will Be Blood” and “No Country For Old Men”- and either one could win Best Picture. But we’ll see what the show looks like on February 24th. Much has been made about how the actors will likely snub the event if the writer’s strike is still going on.
But right now, let the campaigning begin!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Fearless Oscar Predictions 2008
It’s that time of year again – anyone can pick winners but I like to play ball with the big boys and guess who will pull down Academy Award nominations. Check the odds – it’s much harder this way.
But this year, everything is turned upside down – the WGA strike means no real televised award shows and discussion ad nauseum as to whether the Oscars will actually happen. You know what? The absence of coverage has actually been good – it has kept everyone’s eye on the ball.
I honestly believe that Eddie Murphy blew his shot at an Oscar last year because he acted like such a disenfranchised dink up during the run up to the big show. Humility goes a long way and after a half-dozen Murphy Guild and Globe speeches in which he was either bored or mocked the process (“I don’t be winnin’ awards”), somehow on Oscar night, the envelope for Best Supporting Actor now read "Alan Arkin."
So who will benefit from this year’s lack of coverage? Which performance or film will rise or fall based on its own merits? This year, there are some real contenders and not just the typical assortment of “make goods,” so it should be exciting. So here are my fearless picks for who will be nominated Tuesday, January 22nd.
BEST DIRECTOR:
The biggest shame is the emerging directors who won’t be on this year’s list: actors Sarah Polley and Ben Affleck directed two of the best films of year ("Away From Her" and "Gone Baby Gone," respectively) and two of their actors will likely win statues but, alas, don’t expect to see these first time helmers in the final five. And even though “Juno” is a bona fide hit and Diablo Cody will win her first Oscar for her first script, director Jason Reitman shouldn't bother spending a lot of time practicing his acceptance speech.
There is always a surprise inclusion and this year, that will be Julian Schnabel, getting a boost from his surprising Golden Globe win for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” Schnabel will replace Joe Wright ("Atonement"), who is getting more attention for that great tracking shot than the rest of the movie, and we all remember how well that turned out for “Children of Men” last year.
MY PICKS:
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)
Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
Sean Penn (“Into the Wild”)
Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
What a strong category this year! I could be way off the mark once all the dust settles because so many performances are worthy here. Andy Griffith was powerfully affecting in “Waitress” but the “forgotten old guy” nomination will go to Hal Holbrook. Ethan Hawke gave the performance of his career in “Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead;” Ben Foster was creepy as hell in “3:10 To Yuma” and Paul Dano’s religious fervor reaches for the rafters in “There Will be Blood” but all will fall victim to a handful of actors who were simply awesome in more than one film last year.
In the end, nobody stands a chance at beating Bardem, whose Anton Chigurh is already the stuff of legend. Casey Affleck had two amazing breakthroughs (“Jesse James” and “Gone Baby Gone”) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman was great in three movies, hence their single inclusions here:
MY PICKS:
Javier Bardem, (“No Country for Old Men”)
Casey Affleck, (“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford")
Hal Holbrook, (“Into the Wild”)
Tom Wilkinson, (“Michael Clayton”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, (“Charlie Wilson's War”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
A very tough category. Amy Ryan’s going to win for her blistering performance as the trashy mom of a missing child in Ben Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone. Beyond her, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton and the amazing young actress Saoirse Ronan are locks. That fifth spot is a fuzzy one.
Catherine Keener (“Into the Wild”) is so loved by her peers, she gets nominated if the wind blows a certain direction but I don’t think it will be her year again. All the ingénues and young whipper-snappers will be balanced by either the elegant Ruby Dee (who has never actually be nominated before) or Vanessa Redgrave, who steals “Atonement” as the older version of Ronan’s character. Or both, in which you can count Swinton out.
MY PICKS:
Amy Ryan, (“Gone Baby Gone”)
Cate Blanchett, (“I'm Not There”)
Ruby Dee, (“American Gangster”)
Saoirse Ronan, (“Atonement”)
Tilda Swinton, (“Michael Clayton”)
BEST ACTOR:
Well, there is Daniel Day Lewis…and a whole slew of worthy contenders who will be honored to be nominated. Tommy Lee Jones…Josh Brolin…Christian Bale…Denzel Washington – all great in dual performances that will yield nothing in terms of nods. James McAvoy will not ride the “Atonement” wave because, well, he was kind of the weak link. And as much as we feel the Earth simply won’t spin correctly until Johnny Depp wins an Oscar, I don’t think “Sweeney Todd” is going to be the one, despite his Golden Globe win.
Lewis and Clooney are in. Beyond that, I wouldn’t bet my lunch money. But if either Hirsch, Gosling or Mortensen fail to make the cut, it will be because of Tom Hanks (“Charlie Wilson’s War”) or Depp. Hence, my total crapshoot of Best Actor guesses:
MY PICKS:
Daniel Day Lewis, (“There Will Be Blood”)
George Clooney, (“Michael Clayton”)
Emile Hirsch, (“Into the Wild”)
Ryan Gosling, (“Lars and the Real Girl”)
Viggo Mortensen, (“Eastern Promises”)
BEST ACTRESS:
I've been five for five in this category for the past seven years, but this could be the year...
Julie Christie is the new Helen Mirren. Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page are coming off years of slow-churning buzz. Laura Linney is always a favorite; Angelina Jolie is simply amazing and could pull off an upset if politics factor into the voting process. But although Keira Knightley is beautiful and talented, she’s also the ice queen in “Atonement,” a film wrongly promoted as a love story. In the end, voters may not feel all warm and fuzzy about nominating her.
MY PICKS:
Julie Christie, (“Away from Her”)
Marion Cotillard, (“La Vie en Rose”)
Angelina Jolie, (“A Mighty Heart”)
Laura Linney, (“The Savages”)
Ellen Page, (“Juno”)
BEST PICTURE:
The big question is: what will be this year’s “Dreamgirls”…the no-brainer nominee that will shockingly not get nominated? There may not be one.
“No Country” could become the Coen Brothers’ first Best Picture win and that would make sense. It’s already their highest-grossing film and won the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama). “There Will be Blood” could provide an upset; “Michael Clayton” is as good as gold and “Juno” will ride a popularity wave and be endlessly referred to as “this year’s Little Miss Sunshine.”
The industry campaign for “Atonement” has taken a cue from Hillary Clinton and assumed the mantle of inevitability. But whether that is enough to actually get people to vote for the movie remains to be seen. Personally, I see right through the “Atonement” posturing but let’s not forget that people are sheep – and the movie DID win the Golden Globe for Best Drama.
So, “Atonement” is in – but if it’s not, the upset will be either Sean Penn’s “Into the Wild" or Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."
MY PICKS:
Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood
So there we are. Nominations are next Tuesday at 5:30am, so we'll see how I do. The awards happen February 24th in some form or another.
Personally, I’m glad the writers took down the Globes and I hope they do the same for the Oscars. There is just too much at stake, but that’s another column.
But this year, everything is turned upside down – the WGA strike means no real televised award shows and discussion ad nauseum as to whether the Oscars will actually happen. You know what? The absence of coverage has actually been good – it has kept everyone’s eye on the ball.
I honestly believe that Eddie Murphy blew his shot at an Oscar last year because he acted like such a disenfranchised dink up during the run up to the big show. Humility goes a long way and after a half-dozen Murphy Guild and Globe speeches in which he was either bored or mocked the process (“I don’t be winnin’ awards”), somehow on Oscar night, the envelope for Best Supporting Actor now read "Alan Arkin."
So who will benefit from this year’s lack of coverage? Which performance or film will rise or fall based on its own merits? This year, there are some real contenders and not just the typical assortment of “make goods,” so it should be exciting. So here are my fearless picks for who will be nominated Tuesday, January 22nd.
BEST DIRECTOR:
The biggest shame is the emerging directors who won’t be on this year’s list: actors Sarah Polley and Ben Affleck directed two of the best films of year ("Away From Her" and "Gone Baby Gone," respectively) and two of their actors will likely win statues but, alas, don’t expect to see these first time helmers in the final five. And even though “Juno” is a bona fide hit and Diablo Cody will win her first Oscar for her first script, director Jason Reitman shouldn't bother spending a lot of time practicing his acceptance speech.
There is always a surprise inclusion and this year, that will be Julian Schnabel, getting a boost from his surprising Golden Globe win for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” Schnabel will replace Joe Wright ("Atonement"), who is getting more attention for that great tracking shot than the rest of the movie, and we all remember how well that turned out for “Children of Men” last year.
MY PICKS:
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)
Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
Sean Penn (“Into the Wild”)
Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
What a strong category this year! I could be way off the mark once all the dust settles because so many performances are worthy here. Andy Griffith was powerfully affecting in “Waitress” but the “forgotten old guy” nomination will go to Hal Holbrook. Ethan Hawke gave the performance of his career in “Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead;” Ben Foster was creepy as hell in “3:10 To Yuma” and Paul Dano’s religious fervor reaches for the rafters in “There Will be Blood” but all will fall victim to a handful of actors who were simply awesome in more than one film last year.
In the end, nobody stands a chance at beating Bardem, whose Anton Chigurh is already the stuff of legend. Casey Affleck had two amazing breakthroughs (“Jesse James” and “Gone Baby Gone”) and Phillip Seymour Hoffman was great in three movies, hence their single inclusions here:
MY PICKS:
Javier Bardem, (“No Country for Old Men”)
Casey Affleck, (“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford")
Hal Holbrook, (“Into the Wild”)
Tom Wilkinson, (“Michael Clayton”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, (“Charlie Wilson's War”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
A very tough category. Amy Ryan’s going to win for her blistering performance as the trashy mom of a missing child in Ben Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone. Beyond her, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton and the amazing young actress Saoirse Ronan are locks. That fifth spot is a fuzzy one.
Catherine Keener (“Into the Wild”) is so loved by her peers, she gets nominated if the wind blows a certain direction but I don’t think it will be her year again. All the ingénues and young whipper-snappers will be balanced by either the elegant Ruby Dee (who has never actually be nominated before) or Vanessa Redgrave, who steals “Atonement” as the older version of Ronan’s character. Or both, in which you can count Swinton out.
MY PICKS:
Amy Ryan, (“Gone Baby Gone”)
Cate Blanchett, (“I'm Not There”)
Ruby Dee, (“American Gangster”)
Saoirse Ronan, (“Atonement”)
Tilda Swinton, (“Michael Clayton”)
BEST ACTOR:
Well, there is Daniel Day Lewis…and a whole slew of worthy contenders who will be honored to be nominated. Tommy Lee Jones…Josh Brolin…Christian Bale…Denzel Washington – all great in dual performances that will yield nothing in terms of nods. James McAvoy will not ride the “Atonement” wave because, well, he was kind of the weak link. And as much as we feel the Earth simply won’t spin correctly until Johnny Depp wins an Oscar, I don’t think “Sweeney Todd” is going to be the one, despite his Golden Globe win.
Lewis and Clooney are in. Beyond that, I wouldn’t bet my lunch money. But if either Hirsch, Gosling or Mortensen fail to make the cut, it will be because of Tom Hanks (“Charlie Wilson’s War”) or Depp. Hence, my total crapshoot of Best Actor guesses:
MY PICKS:
Daniel Day Lewis, (“There Will Be Blood”)
George Clooney, (“Michael Clayton”)
Emile Hirsch, (“Into the Wild”)
Ryan Gosling, (“Lars and the Real Girl”)
Viggo Mortensen, (“Eastern Promises”)
BEST ACTRESS:
I've been five for five in this category for the past seven years, but this could be the year...
Julie Christie is the new Helen Mirren. Marion Cotillard and Ellen Page are coming off years of slow-churning buzz. Laura Linney is always a favorite; Angelina Jolie is simply amazing and could pull off an upset if politics factor into the voting process. But although Keira Knightley is beautiful and talented, she’s also the ice queen in “Atonement,” a film wrongly promoted as a love story. In the end, voters may not feel all warm and fuzzy about nominating her.
MY PICKS:
Julie Christie, (“Away from Her”)
Marion Cotillard, (“La Vie en Rose”)
Angelina Jolie, (“A Mighty Heart”)
Laura Linney, (“The Savages”)
Ellen Page, (“Juno”)
BEST PICTURE:
The big question is: what will be this year’s “Dreamgirls”…the no-brainer nominee that will shockingly not get nominated? There may not be one.
“No Country” could become the Coen Brothers’ first Best Picture win and that would make sense. It’s already their highest-grossing film and won the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama). “There Will be Blood” could provide an upset; “Michael Clayton” is as good as gold and “Juno” will ride a popularity wave and be endlessly referred to as “this year’s Little Miss Sunshine.”
The industry campaign for “Atonement” has taken a cue from Hillary Clinton and assumed the mantle of inevitability. But whether that is enough to actually get people to vote for the movie remains to be seen. Personally, I see right through the “Atonement” posturing but let’s not forget that people are sheep – and the movie DID win the Golden Globe for Best Drama.
So, “Atonement” is in – but if it’s not, the upset will be either Sean Penn’s “Into the Wild" or Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."
MY PICKS:
Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood
So there we are. Nominations are next Tuesday at 5:30am, so we'll see how I do. The awards happen February 24th in some form or another.
Personally, I’m glad the writers took down the Globes and I hope they do the same for the Oscars. There is just too much at stake, but that’s another column.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
