Fearless Oscar Predictions 2008 -- THE RESULTS!

So how did I do? Well, better than last year!

In fact, it’s years like this that make me regret not joining some kind of betting pool with a big payout. But that’s not my style. Instead I just sit here in the command center of the Soundwaves Cinema compound knowing I could have scored big. And sometimes that’s enough.


BEST DIRECTOR:
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)
Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
Jason Reitman (“Juno”)
Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)

MY RESULTS: FOUR OUT OF FIVE.

I anticipated a lot more Oscarly love for Sean Penn’s movie “Into The Wild,” which nabbed all of two nods. As predicted, Paul Thomas Anderson, the Coen Brothers, Tony Gilroy and Julian Schnabel all made the cut, and after Schnabel’s surprising Golden Globe win, all eyes are on him now.

Also as predicted, Joe Wright (“Atonement”) was shut out of most of the major categories. People will be shocked - SHOCKED! - by this, but I saw it coming. “Atonement” is a fine and clever film but you can’t bottle a tragedy with an interesting twist and sell it as the next “Titanic,” not without a little fallout.

But good for Jason Reitman, who I honestly dismissed because his film was such a pure pop confection, I figured the Academy would have snubbed it. But this is where those DVD screeners can make or break the game.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, (“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford")
Javier Bardem, (“No Country for Old Men”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, (“Charlie Wilson's War”)
Hal Holbrook, (“Into the Wild”)
Tom Wilkinson, (“Michael Clayton”)

MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!

Considering what a strong category this was, it honestly could have gone a number of different ways. But in the end, Casey Affleck, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Tom Wilkinson all get nods here when they were also superb in equally impressive performances last year. All that good ink helps.

I still think this award is Bardem’s to lose. Yeah, a lot of people really love Hal Holbrook but I just watched “No Country For Old men” again and Bardem is simply the greatest boogeyman since a certain doctor with a taste for human flesh.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, (“I'm Not There”)
Ruby Dee, (“American Gangster”)
Saoirse Ronan, (“Atonement”)
Amy Ryan, (“Gone Baby Gone”)
Tilda Swinton, (“Michael Clayton”)

MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!

Amy Ryan’s galvanizing performance in “Gone Baby Gone” was a given, as was Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton. I always felt Saoirse Ronan was a lock but many Oscarwatchers had neglected to support this theory. Never count out the whipper-snappers!

But it was the luminous Ruby Dee who surprised everyone for her relatively brief turn in “American Gangster.” Not me. Dee is a living icon and an example of Old Hollywood style. She won't win but her very presence will class up the joint.


BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney, (“Michael Clayton”)
Daniel Day Lewis, (“There Will Be Blood”)
Johnny Depp (“Sweeney Todd”)
Tommy Lee Jones (“In The Valley Of Elah”)
Viggo Mortensen, (“Eastern Promises”)

MY RESULTS: THREE OUT OF FIVE

Argh! I knew Depp could have been the spoiler and I should have included him. But I also counted on Ryan Gosling (“Lars and the Real Girl”) getting in because of his multiple nods elsewhere, namely the SAG awards. And despite all that pre-Oscar hype, Emile Hirsch failed to make the cut for Penn’s “Into the Wild.”

But alas – and rightfully so – Tommy Lee Jones emerges a contender for one of two great performances last year (in “Elah” and “No Country For Old Men”). But Daniel Day-Lewis drinks everyone's milkshake. There is simply no better performance in the past few years.


BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, ("Elizabeth: The Golden Age")
Julie Christie, (“Away from Her”)
Marion Cotillard, (“La Vie en Rose”)
Laura Linney, (“The Savages”)
Ellen Page, (“Juno”)

MY RESULTS: FOUR OUT OF FIVE

Double argh! This is the first time I didn’t get five out of five in this category since the century began! And who was responsible for the end of my perfect run? Cate Blanchett, who got her SECOND nomination of the year for a role she has played before! Who saw that coming? This makes four nominations in four years (with one win for “The Aviator”), which is as close to an Oscar sure thing as we get.

It’s too bad because Angelina Jolie’s performance in “A Mighty Heart” was simply that: mighty. My pride is rescued somewhat by having gone out on a limb and predicated Linney for a movie that nobody saw (“The Savages”) and the very young, very talented Ellen Page.

BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

MY RESULTS: FIVE OUT OF FIVE!

I was right. People are sheep. Hence, the inclusion of “Atonement” after being snubbed in most of the major acting and directing categories. Focus Features took a cue from Hillary Clinton and assumed the mantle of inevitability and sometimes, that works.

Two auteur-driven classics lead the charge with eight nominations each - “There Will Be Blood” and “No Country For Old Men”- and either one could win Best Picture. But we’ll see what the show looks like on February 24th. Much has been made about how the actors will likely snub the event if the writer’s strike is still going on.

But right now, let the campaigning begin!